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📊 Polish Real Estate Market in 2025: Quarterly Dynamics, Prices, Demand, and Forecasts
Introduction: 2025 – The Year of the Sober Market
After several years of sharp fluctuations, overheated demand and panic buying, the real estate market in Poland will finally recover in 2025. took a break.
This is already not a market of euphoria, but also not a crisis. Rather, it's the moment when numbers begin to speak louder than emotions.
Experts agree: 2025 is the year transition to stability, where buyers count, sellers bargain, and investors look again to long-term returns.
The basis of this article:
- analytics EY — Poland Real Estate Guide 2025
- official quarterly statistics Główny Urząd Statystyczny (GUS)
- data NBP, CBRE, PKO BP
🏘 General picture of the real estate market in Poland
According to EY, Polish real estate market in 2025 is characterized by three key words:
stabilization - caution - selectivity
📌 What this means in practice:
- prices continue to rise, but without sudden jumps,
- the number of transactions is stabilizing,
- The market is increasingly less responsive to short-term news.
Source: EY, Poland Real Estate Guide 2025
📈 Quarterly housing price dynamics in 2025 (single source — GUS)
To avoid mixing methodologies and approaches, All quarterly data below is taken exclusively from official GUS statistics. — Price indicators of residential premises in Poland.
🏠 Price dynamics by quarter (Poland as a whole)
| Quarter 2025 | Change from the previous quarter | Change compared to the same quarter a year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | +0,7 % | +6,6 % |
| Second quarter | +1,2 % | +4,7 % |
| 3rd quarter | +0,9 % | +4,0 % |
Source: GUS — Price indices of residential premises, 2025
🧠 How to read these numbers correctly
🔹 Q1 2025
The market started the year with moderate growth. The annual rate (+6.6% %) is still high – this reflects demand momentum through 2024.
🔹 Q2 2025
Growth accelerated quarter-on-quarter (+1.2 %), but the year-on-year dynamics have slowed significantly. This is the first clear signal. market cooling.
🔹 Q3 2025
Growth continues, but is becoming more "flat." The annual rate of +4.0 % is a typical level. healthy market, and not overheating.
📌 Important:
In all three quarters the primary market grew faster than the secondary market.
Source: GUS
🏢 Residential Real Estate: What's Happening to Apartments?
Prices in major cities
While GUS publishes quarterly indices for the country as a whole, EY and NBP analysis shows:
- Warsaw, Krakow, Gdansk, Wroclaw - plateau phase,
- price increases are localized and depend on location,
- are appearing more and more often on the secondary market real trading.
👉 The buyer no longer «chasing the price», but compares options.
Demand: Who's Buying in 2025?
The market is formed by:
- families buying housing for living,
- investors for long-term lease,
- foreigners (EU, Ukraine).
📌 Speculative demand has almost disappeared.
🏗 Developers: fewer, but more careful
According to data GUS:
- the number of new projects has decreased,
- developers consider profitability,
- emphasis on quality and energy efficiency.
This reduces the risk of overproduction, but does not solve the structural housing shortage.
🏠 Rental market in 2025
After a sharp rise in previous years:
- rental rates have stabilized,
- the supply has increased,
- tenants began to choose.
📌 This is already tenant market, not the landlord.
💼 Commercial real estate (briefly)
- Offices: demand for modern buildings, declining interest in old ones
- Logistics: one of the strongest market segments
- Investments: return of foreign capital
🔮 Forecast: What's next?
According to the assessment EY и PKO BP:
- a sharp drop in prices is not expected,
- local corrections are possible,
- The key factor is interest rates.
📌 2025 — no time to rush, and the calculation time.
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The Polish real estate market in 2025 has become more rational, but also more complex.
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We are working based on real market data, official statistics and practical experience, not theoretical advice.
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🧾 Conclusion
The Polish real estate market in 2025:
✔ grew, but slowly
✔ became more rational
✔ gave more space for negotiations
✔ was favorable for long-term decisions
This was one of the most "honest" markets in recent years - without hysteria and without illusions.